The “hot-hand” effect refers to a phenomenon in sports where one is more likely than normal to continue a streak once it is set in motion. Any sports fan has likely witnessed a moment where an athlete appears to be “in the zone” and a streak of made shots makes it seem more likely that the next one will also be successful. To the surprise of many narrative-hungry sports fans, studies once suggested that the hot hand effect was a myth, but in recent years, that research has been called into question.
My inclination has always been that the“hot hand” likely exists in both sport and chess. I have always felt that psychology and confidence are inextricably linked to peak performance, and in my own amateur competitions I certainly feel like my performance fluctuates as my confidence waxes and wanes.
Now tied after 4 games, the current World Championship match will provide some interesting data regarding the hot hand in chess, albeit in a tiny sample.
GM Ian Nepomniatchi has long been known as a “momentum driven” player. As we saw in Candidates 2022, when he is riding high, he is nearly unbeatable. But his losses can also come in bunches. Nepo had a reputation for streakiness even before his famously frigid finish in the 2021 World Chess Championship against Magnus Carlsen.
GM Ding Liren is often a steadier competitor than Nepo, but he is also no stranger to streaks. Circa 2018, Ding famously had a 100 game undefeated streak in classical chess, which was a record until Carlsen exceeded it. Ding also overcame quite a sluggish start in the 2022 Candidates Tournament before going on a mini-streak to finish 2nd and ultimately qualify for the ongoing World Championship.
In the match, Ding had another sluggish start and sounded quite dour in the early postgame pressers. Ding’s candid comments elicited sympathy from many chess fans who know the feelings he described all too well…
But Ding has bounced back quickly…
It will be quite interesting to see what happens in the next few rounds. On the one hand, we have a tied match between two closely rated competitors, playing a game that results in a draw with best play. On the other hand, all of the momentum is now on Ding’s side, if it exists!
Anyway, we are a little light on the links this week, but you can find them below. Enjoy the match and have a good weekend!- Ben
Ding-Nepo
“Over just two days, the narrative surrounding the 2023 FIDE World Championship has gone from questioning whether GM Ding Liren was in acceptable form to whether GM Ian Nepomniachtchi can recover.” (JJ Lang for Chess Life Online)
Leonard Barden weighs in on the match so far- “The drastic improvement in Ding’s demeanour from the depressed figure of game two, hiding in his rest room as his position deteriorated, to the confident personality of game four, moving rapidly with strong choices while Nepomniachtchi sat slumped in his chair awaiting his doom, has been the most striking visual aspect of the match so far.” (The Guardian)
Chess Improvement
GM Alex Colovic on an Important Realization he had about Improving Calculation- “The vast majority of blunders and mistakes happen on the first 2 or 3 moves of our calculations.” (GM Alex Colovic’s Newsletter)
More on Calculation, from the Amateur perspective, from TheOnoZone “I often find that both for myself and for my students, the issue isn’t that we can’t calculate, it’s that we don't. Because it hurts.” (LiChess Blog)
Dr. Nick Vasquez is back with more insights on studying chess, and medicine… “It’s been said that the most reliable way to improve at chess is to play slow games and then analyze your own games. However I’d make a slight adjustment to that idea. You can best learn chess by playing slow games and then learning the story of the game.” (Dr. Nick Vasquez)
Other Chess News
GM Hans Niemann, Gukesh, and Van Foreest are in action in the Menorca Open in Spain (Shahid Ahmed for Chessbase India)
GM Liviu-Dieter Nisepeanu Has Switched Federations back to his Native Romania, which is quickly becoming a Chess Powerhouse (Tarjei Svenson for Chess.com)
Book Review
Richard James reviews Kingwalks: Paths of Glory by Yasser Seirawan and Bruce Harper “Even if it does little to improve your rating, it will certainly provide you with a lot of entertainment and a wider appreciation of the beauty of your favourite game.” (British Chess News)
Thanks for the recent bonus pod with FM Mike Klein on events in Astana. You asked who should you interview for future bonus pods on the Worlds. I always like to hear from IM Andras Toth and have been enjoying his recap videos in YouTube from the first four rounds. Good to have him back.